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Second international match in a few days for Holland, when Paraguay will come to visit the Abe Lenstra Stadium in Heerenveen. Contrary to yesterday’s match against Italy, we are pretty confident that Holland can get a victory here. There’s a huge difference in perspective, compared to the match in Pescara.

First, the opponent is not of world class. Paraguay is one of the stronger teams in South America, which resulted in qualification for the WC2010 finishing third in the group (behind Brazil and Chile, but above Uruguay and Argentina). They sealed qualification with a home victory over Argentina (1-0). The last two matches were less convincing, beating low class Venezuela 1-2 and losing at home against Colombia (0-2). This weekend, the team of Gerardo Martino suffered a 2-0 defeat against Qatar in Rouen (France). Their star player Roque Santa Cruz is back in the squad after a year of injury worries. Holland has a big advantage in quality.

Second, Holland plays at home. In home matches, Holland has been very strong, winning al four matches with a clean sheet. This match will be the first ever international match played in Heerenveen, but this will not harm the atmosphere. The place will be crowded, with a typically-Heerenveen positive vibe. When Holland plays at home, usually opponents feel that little is possible within minutes of the first half. Paraguay does not have the quality to break the home winning streak.

Third, Holland approaches the match in a different way. When playing Italy, coach Van Marwijk approached this match very serious, which was reflected in the tactics. Defensive organisation first, attacking was of minor importance. Before the match in Pescara, Van Marwijk would have been content with a draw, but now he’s asking for a convincing win, period. Despite the injuries of Van Persie and Robben, there’s enough quality left to shred the Paraguay defense to pieces.

Conclusion: the odd of 1.67 at Unibet is too high. There’s some nice value in it, as for the above reasons we didn’t expect the odd the odd to be above 1.55. Therefore, we play it with large stakes. Other lean was Holland -1 around 2.6, but there’s enough to grab with the moneyline odd.

Friendly match here. Holland and Italy, both already placed for the WC2010, line up for a friendly match in the Stadio Adriatico in Pescara. In our opinion, this is a hard match to bet on. Holland has a great record in the WCQ, with 24 points out of 8 matches. Though regularly criticised in dutch press, the defense was rock solid with only two goals conceded. However, the question remains what the real strength is of this team. The opponents Norway, Scotland, Macedonia and Iceland clearly are not the international football elite.

The last international top opponent match Holland played was a friendly in Amsterdam against England. This match showed that Holland has a hard time facing international top class teams. Despite leading with 2-0, Holland seemed happy with a 2-2 draw. The Dutch goals originated from mistakes in the English defense, while the defense had severe problems with Carlton Cole and Jermain Defoe. After the match, manager Van Marwijk said he learnt a lot new in this match.

Italy, of course, is of international class. The reigning world champions ended top of their group, leaving among others, Ireland and Bulgaria behind them. None of the 10 matches was lost. This friendly, manager Lippi wil try some new players like Davide Biondini, Parma midfielder Daniele Galloppa and Livorno midfielder Antonio Candreva. Key players like Vincenzo Iaquinta, Gennaro Gattuso, Daniele De Rossi and Claudio Marchisio are out for the match.

Coach Lippi wil use this match for trying the new guys. He has 30 candidates for the 23-man squad for South-Africa, and everyone gets his chance. On the other hand, Van Marwijk is not so keen on experiments. He works with a familiar group of players, and only in case of injuries, new players are called in. In this case, it will be Wout Brama of Twente Enschede replacing Demy de Zeeuw (Ajax) in midfield. Arjen Robben was withdrawn from the squad, because of the odd injury.

Should we have to pick something, it would be the under 2 with an odd of 2.14 (12bet). Sounds pretty strange, but Holland will pretty much play from its organisation and solid defence, denying the Italians to score. As Lippi will try some players and rotate with them, Italy will not be at full strength. Holland will be all too happy with a draw, eventhough it is a friendly. The last friendly, in Australia, ended 0-0. However, as it is friendly football and as Holland and Italy are no experts in friendly international matches, small stakes are advised.